In response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) reduced the Federal Funds rate to near zero, which is the rate that the Fed charges banks for loans. Its lowest, and current, point was 0.09%. For comparison, it was at 1.55% in the beginning of 2020. Typically, the 10-year Treasury Note interest rate follows suit. However, the relationship is indirect, so we could see anomalies — which is what has happened.
The T-note rate correlates strongly with investors’ economic certainty, as T-notes are an extremely safe investment. In times of uncertainty, the rate drops as more people are buying T-notes. In more certain times, investors instead move their money to less secure investments with a higher return. While it did decrease from 1.76% to 0.62% in the first half of 2020, it bounced back in the second half. At 1.08%, it is still below the Jan 2020 rate, but is continuing to climb. The Feds meanwhile have no intention of changing the Federal Funds rate until 2023, at which point the T-note rate is virtually guaranteed to go up.
What does all this mean? Well, we can say for sure that the Fed’s decision to keep the Federal Funds rate at 0.09% means they aren’t hopeful for a recovery until 2023. There are a few possibilities as to what the increasing T-note rate means. It could be that investors are too hopeful about less secure investments, and they’ll experience losses. Maybe the Fed is being overly cautious, and the economy is actually about to start recovering soon. Or it could be that investors realized in the first half that they have been largely unaffected by the economic recession, and don’t particularly care that the overall economy is in a slump.