January Sales Sink in SoBay

As 2020 ended, it looked like the real estate industry here in the Los Angeles South Bay was going to run right through the pandemic with prices climbing the whole way! It didn’t happen. January put the brakes on sales across the board. Every area showed a drop in the number of sales, with Palos Verdes dropping the deepest at 40% below December’s transaction volume.

Along with a decline in the number of sales, The South Bay showed a 35% drop in sales dollars from December to January. Monthly statistics can be misleading though. With a year like 2020 we need to look at the wider perspective. On a year to year basis, we’re still riding high with a 33% increase across the area.

Keep in mind these are relatively small volumes of data, dealing only with the “hyper-local market” here in the South Bay, so some large percentile swings are unavoidable.

Month-to-Month

Month-to-Month sales volume indicates a general softening of the market with a significant drop in the number of purchases. In addition, the price side of the chart hints at a pending drop in prices.

Much is being said about the January sales decline, most of it anecdotal. There is a seemingly hopeful general consensus that a pandemic peak, combined with the political climate, were the main drivers keeping people from buying real estate. Theoretically, now that spring is in the air and “herd immunity” is in sight we might again see those scorching increases of last year.

The Beach cities showed a 12% decline in January sales prices compared to December, however we need to remember that December 2020 was a record month for median prices at the beach. In fact, for much of the year, high-end sales dominated the charts for Beach area sales.

There’s good reason to hope for stabilizing volume and pricing, though. Even at the comparatively modest 2% monthly increase we’re seeing in PV and the Inland areas, the annual increase is nearly 25%. That far exceeds the 2% annual increase the Federal Reserve Bank is targeting. These numbers are reminiscent of the lead-in to the Great Recession.

Year-to-Year

On the year over year side, things look somewhat different. In January of 2020, before the pandemic became front page news, overall sales volume was 13% higher than 2019. Building on that impressive growth, this January shows a similar 18% sales increase for the South Bay. The pandemic has taken a negative toll in many aspects of life, but real estate here in the South Bay is prospering throughout it all.

While the number of sales has increased over last January, price growth has been equally impressive. Beach areas and the Palos Verdes cities came in at 10% and 11% respectively. Boosted by the record low interest rates, the lower priced Harbor and Inland areas were up an even greater 14% and 15%. Recent inching up of the mortgage loan interest rates threatens to dampen sales as the least qualified buyers slip out of the market.

Beaches

We’ve looked to the Beach area more and more often in recent years as an early indicator of where the market is going. We do that because a large percentage of the transactions in the Beach cities are primarily for investment value as opposed to being simply homes. Right now it’s looking like investors are taking a pause. The coming three to six months should tell us how long it’ll be until they come back into the market.

Harbor

Long Beach, San Pedro, Harbor Gateway and similar locales have benefited greatly from the currently low interest rates. The month to month sales volume has had the least impact of the South Bay, with only a 25% decline compared to 30% across the board.

Similarly, prices have maintained nicely. Up 1% from December and up 14% from last January puts homes there in competition with the Inland cities for being the most marketable homes.

Palos Verdes

Prices are up 2% on the hill compared to December, and they’re up 11% over last January. A very respectable performance considering that month to month sales are off 40% and annual sales are only up by 5%.

It’s always important to note that homes on the peninsula are quite diverse in nature and in size, and the market is relatively small, so one or two transactions can distort statistics.

Inland

While the Beach cities are known to be havens for investment, the Harbor certainly has it’s own share of investment dollars. Many of the remodeled tract homes flying off the market in the Inland areas have already been purchased off-market by developers who refurbish and resell them. This has been especially prevalent over the past year as sales burgeoned in the entry level markets.

Despite dropping 35% from December, sales volume was up 24% over last January. At the same time there was a tidy 15% improvement in pricing over the same month last year.

Photo by Jason Blackeye on Unsplash

2020/2021 Housing Summary & Forecast for the South Bay

The year 2020 was very nearly the least predictable time in local real estate history. Seriously, what other time have we experienced massive unemployment and rising home prices simultaneously? All indications suggest 2021 will be a tad more conventional.

Home Values Grew in 2020

Despite “turmoil” being the watchword of 2020, the year produced some remarkable results in the Los Angeles South Bay. The Beach cities recorded a 28% increase in median price for December compared to December 2019. The cost of building didn’t rise at that rate, so clearly there was a heavy investment in anticipated value. As the chart below shows, Even with all the up and down motion, during the final half of the year buyers & investors were betting heavily that things were headed for calmer, more profitable waters.

That activity was spread across the spectrum of prices, as you can see tracing the community lines shown above.

Note that May reflects the sudden market contraction from the Covid announcement the beginning of March. This is a rare moment when the chart shows how much delay there is between signing a purchase agreement, and closing escrow. In April, 30 days after the announcement of a Covid pandemic, escrows were starting to drop off and were at or slightly down from March closings. By May, 60 days later, the number of closed sales had fallen by ~50K units in each of the four market areas. It took the classic 45 day escrow period to show that the pandemic took away nearly 30% of the business in the local real estate market.

How Many Sales? Where? Why?

While the Beach and the Harbor areas fought it out for the highest total sales dollars throughout the year, the Harbor clearly enjoyed the highest number of units sold every month as we see in the chart below. While the number of sales climbed across the South Bay, at the end of the year it was the Harbor with the largest increase in sales. Starting 2020 with 315 sales in January, the number climbed consistently through the year to a strong finish with 476 in December.

Two factors play into the volume of Harbor area sales. Part is the sheer number of homes in what is physically a larger area. The more interesting aspect of Harbor area sales increasing while the rest are relatively flat is the reason.

Homes in the Harbor cities are lowest priced in the South Bay by about $100K. Interest rates are currently running below 3%, and it’s in the lowest price points of the market where low interest rates are most effective. The low rates mean more buyers can afford to purchase at the same price point, on the same income stream. The larger number of buyers competing creates multiple offers and drives the price higher, which is a major factor pushing the market today. If we are to believe the Federal Reserve Bank, current interest rates are expected to remain historically low for the foreseeable future. The demand should hang around for just about as long.

Different Strokes for Different Folks

In the chart below, it’s interesting to note that the Inland and Harbor cities progress across the months with stability and only a slight change from beginning to end. At the same time, the Beach and PV cities gyrate through the year, sometimes with $200K jumps from one month to the next. One is tempted to say it’s the comparative size of the market area, but the Inland cities have very nearly the same number of homes as the Beach cities.

This difference is often thought of as reflecting the nature of the home buyer in these communities. Looking at stereotypes, it’s easy to imagine an owner in Torrance or Long Beach, for example, who buys in their early twenties and doesn’t move again until retirement–very stable. In the Beach and PV price ranges, where a home is often considered more as an investment vehicle than a residence, it’s easy to see where market forces can result in sudden changes to where one lives.

Moving From 2020 to 2021

The beginning of 2021 marked the end of some of the more impactful aspects of 2020. A ferocious political battle is ended, and a new Federal administration looks inclined to use “all the available tools” to bring our collapsed economy back on line quickly. Time will tell how much that helps us here in the South Bay.

The ever-changing story of the international pandemic may be coming to an end with the approval of multiple vaccines for Covid-19. Rumors still abound as to the actual efficacy of the drugs, and rates of infection are still climbing dramatically, especially here in Los Angeles county. It will end, whether sooner or later. The big question today is if the price increases we’ve seen as a result of bidding wars will sustain as the pandemic eases and government assistance is strengthened.

Looking at December activity, we see big increases in sales volume for Month over Month (M-M) and Year over Year (Y-Y) statistics. A continuance of this trend could make 2021 an exceptional year for real estate in the South Bay.

Median prices show a large variation from area to area, and importantly show a slowdown in the climbing prices. Y-Y price growth was strong in December, reflecting the high demand at current interest rates. However, M-M prices predominantly showed a reversal in price growth. Some of the slowdown could be seasonal, but if you’ve been reading our blog posts you already know there’s a growing backlog of homes poised on the edge of foreclosure. The only thing preventing a mass of short sale and foreclosure properties on the market is the forbearance rules put in place to prevent a sudden jump in homelessness during the pandemic.

Beach

December activity in Beach cities showed insane growth for M-M and Y-Y sales, both in the the number of sales, and especially in the prices of sold homes.

As if annual growth of 28% in median price wasn’t crazy enough, look at that monthly increase of 18.2%! Annualized, that would be over 114% growth! Statistics with this much reach can only be attributed to a profound belief that prices will continue to increase at a similar rate. Or, continue until the property can be flipped, that is.

Palos Verdes

Palos Verdes in December was almost a reverse image of the Beach cities. The explosive growth in PV came in the number of home sales which shot up 18%, bringing the annual number to a phenomenal 42% growth in volume for the year.

Median prices in PV showed modest increases, ending the year only slightly higher than the Fed’s target growth rate. The shift from positive growth to shrinkage in December hints at an overall market trending toward lower median sales prices.

A side note: Homes on the hill have not maintained the “investment quality” image of those on the Beach. PV was once considered the place to buy a home from a prestige angle and from an investment perspective. New money moving into the Beach cities has diminished that role in recent years. I predict a rebirth of property values in the Palos Verdes cities over the next few years, which will make having a home on the peninsula key in local business and society.

Inland

For the most part, Inland homes are family homes. They are the places with hoops in the driveway and lemonade stands at the sidewalk. Investment here is a long term concept.

So, when we see over 20% M-M growth in number of homes sold accompanied by nearly 30% Y-Y, we’re seeing market movement rather than shifts in investment strategy. As it is throughout South Bay, the cause of that movement appears to be the sub-3% interest rate which enlarged the entry level market segment. More buyers flooding in created bidding wars and drove sales and prices higher.

Compared to last December, median prices in the Inland cities were up 5.5%, peaking at $733K. That’s a good healthy increase, only slightly above the expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers. Caution though–the M-M median is down 2.3%. It could be a momentary blip; a result of the holiday season, or the Covid surge. That year end drop may also indicate that the $750K median from November is the market ceiling.

Harbor

In addition to the largest home sales volume in the South Bay, the Harbor area boasts the most entry level homes. There’s a good deal of lifestyle overlap with the Inland cities, to be sure. The Harbor dramatically displays the same message we see across most of the South Bay. Everything was going strong until December, then buyers put the brakes on.

Today’s environment in the Harbor points the direction to the future. Sales here had a stronger growth than the Inland cities over the months leading up to December, and show a more pronounced decline in December.

Some of the slowdown will ultimately prove to be driven by the holiday, and some the election, and some by the pandemic. Even then, it’s hard to avoid the feeling that some of the decline is a recession held back by a thin wall of regulations temporarily preventing foreclosure and eviction.

We can certainly hope for better news from the new year, but as of the end of 2020 many of our indicators are calling for a deeper recession in coming months. It’s possible. Somewhere in the range of 20%-40% of homeowners are in forbearance now, and a roughly equivalent number of tenants are building up deferred rent payments. If adequate measures are taken to protect both sides of the debt, all of this will amount to footnote in history. Otherwise, it’ll be the second worldwide recession in this generation.

Photo ‘Work From Home’ by Nelly Antoniadou on Unsplash

Prices Rise Despite Pandemic

Quite a year! Soon we’ll have to do a wrap-up on 2020. But, for today it’s going to be November 2020 versus last year, (November 2019) and versus last month (September 2020).

Let’s start with the big numbers. Over all, total sales in the Los Angeles South Bay for November came in at just shy of $880M, 9% off from September. One could easily consider that drop a seasonal variation as we move into the cold months.

Compared to November 2019, total sales dollars for the combined areas of the South Bay were up 25%. Much of that is making up for sales that didn’t happen during the confusion of the first shutdown this year. Now that things are more stable, we’re seeing a lot more come on the market. Nearly everything coming on the market is selling, and at good prices.

Harbor

The star of the month is the Harbor area with a 42% year over year improvement in sales dollars. Units sold were up 26% Y-Y and median sales price was up 13%. This is a big boost for the San Pedro-Carson-Long Beach area. The increased action and the increased price, outpaced the rest of the South Bay by huge margins.

Generally speaking, the Harbor cities have entry level homes. Those are being bid up dramatically by buyers who newly qualify for purchase loans because mortgage interest rates are now down in the 2-3% range. I suspect there are more than a couple of investors are mixed in there, too.

Palos Verdes

The Palos Verdes peninsula presents an anomaly this month. November compared to October universally shows a seasonal decline in the 1-10% range, but PV dropped 27% in dollar volume. Looking deeper we see the M-M median sales price has dropped by 13%, while neighboring areas have remained within 1-2% of last month’s median price. Monthly sales volume also plummeted by 15% versus an average of 4% down for other areas. Year over year values are all in line with the rest of the South Bay, by PV seems to be taking a beating from the pandemic.

Beaches

The Beach, by comparison to PV and the Harbor, had a boring November. Volume was down from October by 9% and median price off by 2%. Total dollar sales fell from October by 9%. All was well within seasonal expectations. Looking at 2020 over 2019, the number of sales was up 1% and median price was up 3%, leaving a tidy 11% increase in Y-Y total dollars sold.

Inland

Inland cities sales volume for November dropped off from last month by 3%. It should be noted that October volume was already down by 10% from September. Median sales price declined a mere 1%, while total sales dollars were off by 3%. Minor drops given seasonal impact. Looking back to last year, the Torrance-Gardena-Lomita area showed respectable middle-of-the-road growth. Sales volume was up 12% over 2019. Median price was up 10%. Those increases created a total sales dollar increase of 25% above last year.

Not bad for being in a pandemic. We’re left with two questions to look closely at for the year end report in January: “What’s happening with values on the Hill?” and “What and who is driving the 42% annual increase in sales dollars for the Harbor?” We’ll be back with more on that in our next post.

Not bad for being in a pandemic. Existence of a vaccine should relieve the fear keeping many people away from buying and selling during the coming months. The Federal Reserve Bank has indicated that interest rates will stay down for another 12-24 months. Everything points to a growing confidence over the winter and a booming market in the spring.

The High and the Low

The Los Angeles South Bay is a very diverse set of communities. To show you the breadth of that diversity, let’s take a quick look at the highest priced sale for November, versus the lowest priced sale.

On The Strand in Manhattan Beach a 6025 sq ft house on a double width lot of 6927sf sold for $17,750,000. The listing agent bills this property as a perfect opportunity to build a world class home of over 11,500sf of living space. The sold price per square foot of residence is $2,946.

On Ackerfield Ave in Long Beach a one bedroom one bathroom condo of 641sf sold for $205,000. Per the listing agent the home boasts a community pool and laundry facility, with one carport plus storage. The sold price represents a rate of $319 per square foot.

Real Estate Sales, Oct. 2020

We’re looking at sales in the South Bay area of Los Angeles a little differently than usual this month. Typically we analyze the area as a single entity. This month we’ll divide the South Bay into four parts, allowing you to see a greater level of precision about those four areas.

Within each area the homes will be more similar, both in style and in pricing. We started by combining the four beach cities, El Segundo, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Redondo Beach. Each of the cities has it’s own unique character, but they share many common traits. (If your home is in Hollywood Riviera, you can consider yourself one with the beach cities.)

The cities on the Palos Verdes Peninsula come together naturally, so we’ve combined Palos Verdes Estates, Rolling Hills Estates, Rolling Hills and Rancho Palos Verdes.

While Torrance does have it’s own beach, most of the city has more of an inland character, so we’ve combined it with Lomita and Gardena. One immediate benefit is the median prices are more representative of actual prices in those three communities.

Finally, we conjoined San Pedro, Long Beach, Harbor City, Wilmington and Carson, collecting the harbor area cities together.

Beach Cities

Prices have been trending up at a pretty rapid pace for most of the year, so it was a real surprise to find the median price in the Beach Cities had dropped by 6% from the September numbers. Last month the median price was $1.5M, while October only came in at $1.41M. Likewise, the number of sales dropped by a surprising 20%, from 209 sales in September, to 167 in October.

Year over year, beach prices increased by an impressive 17%, from $1.2M last October to $1.4M this October. Over the same time frame, sales volume went up by 45%, climbing from 115 units in October 2019, to 167 units in October of 2020.

Photo by Nathan Dumlao on Unsplash

Palos Verdes

On the Peninsula is where you really want to be in 2020. Prices and sales volume increased month to month and year to year. From last month to this month was on par with most of the South Bay, with the October median price of $1.68M coming in 5% above September’s median of $1.6M. The sales volume increase was a modest 3%, going from 95 units to 98.

The real treat for the PV cities is the 2020 over 2019 sales prices. October of last year showed a median price of $1.2M versus $1.68M this year. That’s a whopping 36% median price increase in 12 months. At the same time, October unit sales jumped 51% from 65 homes sold in 2019 to 98 sold in 2020.

Inland Cities

Going just a short distance away from the sandy shores of the beach, or from the bluffs of Palos Verdes, makes a huge difference in property prices. Like the coastal cities, the inland cities showed a 6% increase in prices from September to October. In contrast to the beach and the hill, the median price only went up $40K, from $719K to $759K. Like the beach cities, fewer inland homes were sold in October falling 11% from September. The drop wasn’t as great, going from 183 units in September to 163 in October of 2020.

October of 2020 versus October of 2019, the inland cities had median prices go up by 9%, from $600K to $656K. At the same time, the number of sales dropped by unit, from 164 homes sold, to 163 homes sold this October.

Photo by Dominik Lückmann on Unsplash

Harbor Cities

Median price in the harbor cities is typically lower than anywhere else in the South Bay. Similarly, price increases are slower. For example, while the rest of the areas saw 5-6% increases in month to month sales prices, the harbor came in at 3%. From September to October, the median increased from $636K to $656K. During the same time frame, the number of homes sold climbed 5%, from 435 to 457 units.

Comparing last October to this October, homes in the harbor area enjoyed a slightly more sustainable 9% rise in median price. The median for October 2019 was $600K compared to $656K this October. Sales volume jumped by 15%, from 397 units last year to 457 this year.

Why These Crazy Numbers?!

They are crazy, you know. There is no way prices can continue to climb at 5-6% per month. That’s more like what we would expect on a year over year increase.

October2020September2020ChangeM-M
Med Sales $Sales #Med Sales $Sales #Med Sales $Sales #
Beach1,407,5001671,500,000209-6%-2%
PV1,682,750981,600,00095+5%+3%
Inland759,000163719,000183+6%-11%
Harbor656,000457636,000435+3%+5%
So Bay820,000885799,500922+3%-4%
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Beach Cities prices decline. We’ll be watching November closely.

The answer lies in the interest rates. One the borrowing side, mortgage interest rates have been under 3% for some time now. With rates that low, many people who couldn’t afford to buy a home before, now qualify for a loan. Those who are still employed despite Covid-19 are buying homes if at all possible.

The demand created by that phenomenon has created a plethora of bidding wars. Homes with 20 offers on them are not uncommon. All those offers are pushing prices up at clearly unsustainable rates.

October2020October2019Change %Y-Y
Med Sales $Sales #Med Sales $Sales #Med Sales $Sales #
Beach1,407,5001671,202,00011517%45%
PV1,682,750981,233,0006536%51%
Inland759,000163680,00016412%-1%
Harbor656,000457600,0003979%15%
So Bay820,000885699,00074117%19%

Adding to the entry level buyers who are driving the market at the low end, there is another group who have cash in the bank. Unfortunately, that cash is only earning 1%, or less. Those buyers are watching the price of real estate climb astronomically, and are hoping to cash in on a windfall profit. Some of them will.

The Crystal Ball

Watching the median price drop at the beach by 6% is a hint at what’s coming next. We can’t be sure when it will happen, but steeply escalating prices inevitably plummet in a subsequent correction. Current increases are reminiscent of the rapid run-up of prices in 2006-2007 which resulted in the Great Recession.

Further complicating matters, today we have government and consumer response to Covid-19 as a uncontrollable factor. The third quarter of 2020 looked really good compared to the second quarter, until we remember the coronavirus struck in March. Business during the second quarter was essentially nil.

We can’t forget the election. Fallout from the presidential election could push the economy in any one of several directions depending on who the President is, and the degree of polarization in the Federal government.

One would need a crystal ball to forecast this winter, but I predict a volatile ride for the real estate market.

Crystal ball image by Jamie Street on Unsplash

Some surprises in South Bay Real Estate, 2019 vs 2020

It’s October 1, so it’s time to look at the changes in the local real estate market, both for the month and for the third quarter.

2020 has been a year for making and breaking records. Most of them have been records we truly didn’t want to even consider, like the number of pandemic deaths, and the number of unemployed. Until now, we had little reason to believe the real estate market might bring better news.

Through the first half of the year, the number of homes available on the market just kept climbing. At the same time, the number of homes selling remained stubbornly flat. Despite interest rates hovering just above zero, it seemed buyers had other things on their mind. Then in July the number of closed sales jumped 41%, while available inventory came up a tiny 7%.

Sales continued to climb in August and September, though nothing as dramatic as July. Overall, for the third quarter, unit sales were nearly double those of both, the first quarter of the year (+79%) and the second quarter (+76%).

For the first time this year, the inventory has dropped appreciably.

Comparing to last year, that huge spike in sales brought September in at 47% more sales than in September of 2019. On a quarter over quarter basis, Sales are up 23% over 2019. The red bars in the “Sold vs Available” chart above shows the climbing number of sales, with the blue bars showing the sudden drop of available inventory in September.

Not only were the number of sales climbing, but prices have continued to escalate year over year. September of 2020 showed median prices had increased 23% over September of 2019. Median prices rose 15% for the third quarter of 2020 versus the same time period in 2019.

Combined, the impact of the increased sales and increased prices brought the total dollar value of sales for September 2020 up 89% over that of September 2019. Quarter to quarter, the annual increase was 40%.

“South Bay residential sales for the third quarter of 2020 exceeded two billion dollars.”

Carl Clark

How do we explain record sales and prices during a pandemic, with sky-high unemployment, and the threat of a recession coming from behind? It’ll be weeks before the pundits have sorted it all out. In the meantime, here are a couple of possible explanations.

Third quarter sales range from $285K to $10.5, so we know some of these have been entry level homes. Folks who have been priced out of the area, and because of the lower interest rate could suddenly qualify to purchase here, have jumped at it. Sales under $1M comprise 42% of the total.

At the opposite end, sales over $3M made up 9%. Once again, the interest rate makes it possible to leverage a mansion at a relatively affordable monthly payment. A lot has been said about the future worth of property compared to today’s dollar. Investing at a reduced interest rate usually contributes to a sizable profit at some future sale date.

In between, from $1M to $3M, we have 49% of the third quarter sales. That’s roughly the number of people we would expect to sell for one or another of the typical reasons people move. In fact it corresponds nicely with the rate of market activity for the first half of the year.

In summary, if the thought of making a move in the near future has crossed your mind, this may be the best moment to do so. Call and we’ll put together some numbers specific to your property and your situation. No problem–no obligation!

Photo by Richard Horne at unsplash.com.

August 2020 Sales Analysis

It’s September already! That means it’s time to look at a summary of real estate activity for LA’s South Bay neighborhoods over the past month. Our data is ultra-local which means you get to see the market conditions almost immediately after the month ends.

This summer we’ve been enjoying a relatively busy real estate market with a big jump in sales and mixed results in prices. August 2020 weighed in with the median price nearly 6.8% higher than August of 2019. However, it wasn’t enough to beat the median for this July. August median prices were down by 1.8% from last month. In the first eight months of the year, we’ve seen two months where the median increased, versus six months when it decreased.

Median PricesAugustJuly
2020$1.10M$1.12M
2019$1.03M—-

We saw 450 homes sold in August, up by 10% from July of this year. Compared to August of 2019, sales this year were up 13%. July and August were exceptional sales months compared to January through June. Both months had sales in excess of 400 units, while the first six months of the year were less than 300. March of 2020 made it all the way to 291 sales despite pandemic activity kicking into high gear that month.

Closed SalesAugustJuly
2020450408
2019398—-

July & August sales were up nearly double the sales numbers from the first half of the year. Why the jump in summer? Anecdotally, we’re hearing interest rates being at or below 3% brought those buyers not financially impacted by Covid-19 to the table. That huge savings in interest helped drive prices, as well. To buy now and take advantage of the interest rates, many buyers have been willing to offer slightly above asking price, to lock the deal in.

August brought a significant increase in the number of homes available for sale. At the end of August total available counts stood at 3.68 months of inventory, compared to 2.17 months at the end of July. In raw numbers, that’s an 18% increase in homes available for sale. More sellers put their homes on the market, and there weren’t enough buyers to absorb the increase. As Covid-19 moves to a back burner, we expect the inventory to return to higher numbers comparable to the beginning of the year.

A rising inventory indicates downward pressure on prices.

With subsidies and protective government programs closing, we anticipate fewer buyers will be able to purchase. At the same time, we expect the continuing stress will create more defaults and short sales. Forced sales, also known as ‘distress sales’ tend to push prices down.

Combined, a growing inventory and economic stress are precursors of a shift to a buyers’ market. Several noted commentators are predicting a recessionary market lasting through 2021 and possibly into 2022. Like so many things in today’s world, no one is sure of where we’ll end up. But it’s pretty much guaranteed to be different than we had planned.

Photo by Gustavo Zambelli on Unsplash

55+ Options in South Bay

This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of 55+ housing choices, but a reference point for the more commonly known, age-restricted accommodations available in the Los Angeles South Bay. We welcome your input, but cannot guarantee inclusion.

Condominiums

Breakwater Village, 2750 Artesia Blvd, Redondo Beach, CA 90278
Courtyard Villas Estates, 3970 Sepulveda Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Gables, 3550 Torrance Blvd, Torrance, CA 90503
Meridian, 2742 Cabrillo Ave, Torrance, CA 90501
Montecito, 2001 Artesia Blvd, Redondo Beach, CA 90278
New Horizons, 22603-23047 Maple Ave and 22601-23071 Nadine Circle, Torrance, CA 90505
Pacific Village, 3120 Pacific Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Parkview Court, 2367 Jefferson St, Torrance, CA 90501
Rolling Hills Villas, 901 Deep Valley Dr, Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274
Sol y Mar, 5601 Crestridge Road, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275
Sunset Gardens, 24410 Crenshaw Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Tradewinds, 2605 Sepulveda Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Village Court, 21345 Hawthorne Blvd, Torrance, CA 90503

Independent/Assisted Living/Memory Care Facilities

Belmont Village, 5701 Crestridge Road, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275; 310-377-9977
Brookdale Senior Living, 5481 W Torrance Blvd, Torrance, CA 90503; 310-543-1174
Canterbury, 5801 West Crestridge Road, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275; (877) 727-3213
Clearwater at South Bay, 3210 Sepulveda Blvd,Torrance, CA 90505; 424-250-8492; (previously Wellbrook)
Kensington, 320 Knob Hill Ave, Redondo Beach, 90277; (424) 210-8041
Manhattan Village Senior Villas, 1300 Parkview Ave, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266; (310) 546-4062
Silverado Senior Living, 514 N. Prospect Avenue, Redondo Beach, CA 90277; (310) 896-3100
Sunrise of Hermosa Beach, 1837 Pacific Coast Hwy Hermosa Beach CA 90254; 310-937-0959
Sunrise of Palos Verdes, 25535 Hawthorne Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505; 408-215-9608


Independent Living Only

Casa De Los Amigos, 123 S Catalina Ave, Redondo Beach, CA 90277; 310 376 3457
Heritage Pointe Senior Apartments, 1801 Aviation Way, Redondo Beach, CA 90278; (844) 220-4169
Seasons at Redondo Beach, 109 S Francisca Ave, Redondo Beach, CA 90277; (310) 374-6664

Mobile Home Parks

Skyline, 2550 Pacific Coast Hwy, Torrance
South Bay Estates, 18801 Hawthorne Blvd, Torrance
South Shores, 2275 25th St, San Pedro

2020 — The First Six Months in South Bay

Faced with the Covid-19 pandemic, a particularly contentious national election, and weeks of nation-wide civil rights protests, It looked like there was no way 2020 could ever be called a normal year. Then we learned about a growing recession. So halfway through the year, what do we see?

Prices – Up and Down

The South Bay is a nice place to live. Here, the real estate market is frequently shielded from the vagaries of the nation at large. And it’s no different this year. In this chart we compare the average sales prices during the first six months of 2019 versus 2020, by zip code. In nearly all cases the average property price is still going up. Torrance was very nearly flat and 90274 actually dropped slightly. (If your zip code or city is not included here, and you would like statistics, give us a call.)

Volume – Mostly down

With prices are still climbing, albeit slower than they were, what about sales volume. Here we see some negative impact. Hermosa Beach is the only local city not experiencing a drop off in sales. In Manhattan Beach, for example, sales are off by 38% for the first six months of this year. South Redondo is off by 35%. Torrance and the peninsula cities are all down by roughly 5-10% from the number of homes sold in the same period of 2019.

My Crystal Ball

Our Market Trend chart is designed to show whether market conditions generally favorable for sellers or buyers. The year started as a buyers’ market and moved even further toward buyers in February. Since then we have been seeing a slow, but steady movement toward a sellers’ market. Things could change dramatically before the year is out, but right now the red trend line indicates the probability the South Bay will be in a sellers’ market before the end of 2020.

Garage of the Week – 20190518

Views of Pikes Peak, the Wet Mountains, & mesas all around.
Views of Pikes Peak, the Wet Mountains, & mesas all around.

 

Garage of the week this time  takes you up the mountain side to Williamsburg, Colorado for a peek at 30 acres of forever views from a 3200sf garage and workshop!  Plus a high bay for all your recreational vehicles.  Oh, and  2 operating oil wells with surface & mineral rights, & the property has its own fire hydrant which decreases insurance rates. 

 

One of four garage spaces!
One of three different garage structures!

The 3,200 sq. ft. shop has its own ¾ bath, washer/dryer hookup, air compressor system, 3 AC units, 360,000 Btu heater. There are also two 500 gallon fuel tanks onsite, 1 for diesel and 1 for gasoline as well as a propane tank,its own electric meter & septic system.

 

 

The home has floor-to-ceiling windows on all sides and tile throughout. Both floors have house length viewing decks and the basement includes a family room/game room with 11 big windows and three large bedrooms and a full bath.  As an added inducement–you can subdivide and sell off lots!

https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/real-estate/unspecified/unspecified/2270252.html

Garage of the Week – 20190511

4 car temperature controlled garage

Garage of the Week goes this time to Pasadena, CA where we find a modest 3 bedroom/1 ¾ bathroom home with multiple garages. The 4 car temperature controlled garage, a carport and the “daily driver” 2 car garage are located on a 10,534sf lot! The house offers central HVAC, hardwood floors, a sunroom, wood deck and brick patio and a rustic presence, all for under $1M!

Check out the photos here: https://www.hemmings.com/classifieds/real-estate/unspecified/unspecified/2267116.html