Here’s why house prices are still high despite the recession

It may seem intuitive to look at past recessions, such as the one in 2008, to predict the market during the current recession. But that doesn’t always work, since the circumstances surrounding the downturn may be different. In 2008, what caused home prices to drop was reduced buyer demand and increased foreclosures and short sales. Now in 2020, that’s not happening.

Buyer demand is actually relatively high right now, as a result of interest rates being low. The Fed decreased interest rates in 2019 in expectation of a recession. They were right, of course, but couldn’t have predicted the exacerbating effect that COVID-19 would have. Interest rates can’t get much lower without the Fed going negative, so the market doesn’t have anywhere to go. Foreclosures may be on the horizon if federal and state governments don’t maintain protections. But for the time being, there’s a moratorium on most foreclosures, so there’s no need to drop home prices. Another factor is the lack of construction. With fewer homes being built, especially in the form of affordable housing, low inventory means there’s no competitive pressure on sellers to reduce prices.

Photo by bruce mars on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/letter-to-the-editor-why-are-prices-still-rising-even-though-were-in-a-recession/72735/

Foreclosure moratorium extended through December

The CARES Act, signed into law in March, provides multiple benefits to those impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, including a moratorium on most foreclosures. On August 24, real estate journal First Tuesday pondered what may happen beginning August 31, when the CARES Act was set to expire. However, it was announced August 27 that the moratorium has been extended through December 31.

Even had the moratorium not been extended, First Tuesday said not to panic. The foreclosure process would have to start from the beginning, and it takes time, so homeowners would not be evicted overnight. That said, it’s important that state legislators make efforts to soften the blow even after the federal moratorium ends. Just like foreclosures won’t happen overnight, nor will affected parties recover overnight. Fortunately, there is a statewide bill for California, AB 2501, that seeks to extend it for another 12 months as well as offer forbearance.

Photo by Bruno Figueiredo on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/will-expiring-cares-act-protections-trigger-a-foreclosure-wave/72730/

Understanding property value reassessment

Under Proposition 13, a property’s assessed value doesn’t change very much from year to year, unless the home is sold, in which case its value may or may not be reassessed. But under what conditions is the value not reassessed? Here’s an explanation.

Several types of transfers don’t trigger reassessment. This includes transfers between spouses or domestic partners, from parents to children, or in some cases from grandparents to grandchildren, though it does not include transfers between siblings. Changes recorded without transfer of ownership also do not trigger reassessment. In some cases, replacing a property may also not trigger a reassessment for disabled persons or seniors. Joint tenancy and co-ownership are also factors in determining whether reassessment applies.

Photo by Mari Helin on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/brokerage-reminder-prop-13/17306/

Trends in home sales volume

With their most recent update to home sales volume data for California, First Tuesday has the some of the numbers up to June of 2020. While parts of their analysis have not been updated, we do have data comparing month-to-month sales in June 2020 to both May of 2020 and June of 2019, as well as data for year-over-year sales for June of 2020, 2019, and 2018. We’ve also compiled data exclusively for the South Bay, which demonstrates a much more significant difference.

In June of 2020, the month-to-month sales for all of California were 35,300, with a nearly even split between Northern and Southern California. This is a decrease from the June 2019 number of 39,900, but the numbers are up from May of 2020 at 24,000. Looking at only the South Bay, the trend direction is the same, but the differences are much more stark. There were only 75 sales in May 2020 and 95 in June 2020, compared to 376 in June 2019.

This pattern continues to hold for year-over year sales through June. The total for California was 177,500 in 2020, down from 206,300 in 2019 and 223,800 in 2018. Again, the difference is much more obvious in the South Bay. Following 1692 sales through June in 2018 and 1245 in 2019, there were just 433 in 2020.

Photo by Ussama Azam on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/home-sales-volume-and-price-peaks/692/

Predictions for the 2020 recession’s impact on inventory

The real estate journal First Tuesday asked readers in July how they felt the 2020 recession would impact for-sale inventory. The votes are now in.

A plurality of respondents, 45%, felt inventory would go down. This would likely be a result of both anxiety from sellers and not enough construction. However, the number who instead felt construction would increase and there would be rental vacancies, leading to more listings, was 39%, not too far off from the plurality. The third and final category, those who felt there would be little to no impact, totalled 16%.

But that was July. It’s now August, and there certainly has been an impact. It turns out the 45% were right. Inventory has declined steeply, and construction companies are even more wary about building than they already were before the pandemic. Fortunately, declining rental vacancies points to an increase in inventory as soon as construction starts back up. Changes to California zoning laws also hope to speed up construction.

Photo by Macau Photo Agency on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/the-votes-are-in-how-the-2020-recession-impacts-californias-for-sale-inventory/72705/

How to protect yourself from extreme heat

California is seeing a rise in heat waves. It’s important to know how to keep safe in extreme weather conditions. Here are some suggested precautions from Senator Steven Bradford.

  1. Avoid the sun– stay indoors from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. when the burning rays are strongest.
  2. Drink plenty of fluids– 2 to 4 glasses of water every hour during times of extreme heat.
  3. Replace salt and minerals– sweating removes salt and minerals from your body, so replenish these nutrients with low sugar fruit juices or sports drinks during exercise or when working outside.
  4. Avoid alcohol.
  5. Pace yourself– reduce physical activity and avoid exercising outdoors during peak heat hours.
  6. Wear appropriate clothing– wear a wide-brimmed hat and light-colored lightweight, loose-fitting clothes when you are outdoors.
  7. Stay cool indoors during peak hours – set your air conditioner between 75° to 80°. If you don’t have air conditioning, take a cool shower twice a day and/or visit a County Emergency Cooling Center. Find a local emergency cooling center at lacounty.gov/heat.
  8. Monitor those at high risk– check on elderly neighbors, family members and friends who do not have air conditioning. Infants and children up to 4 years old, people who overexert during work (e.g. construction workers) and people 65 years and older are at the highest risk of heat-related illnesses.
  9. Use sunscreen – with a sun protection factor (SPF) of at least 15 if you need to be in the sun.
  10. Keep pets indoors– heat also affects your pets, so please keep them indoors. If they will be outside, make sure they have plenty of water and a shaded area to help them keep cool.

It is also recommended to reduce electricity usage to avoid shortages and service interruptions. If you are experiencing difficulties from extreme heat, Los Angeles County has designated Cooling Centers with air conditioning. A list of the Cooling Centers can be found in the full article.

Photo by Jonathan Borba on Unsplash

More: https://sd35.senate.ca.gov/sites/sd35.senate.ca.gov/files/e_alert/20200820_SD35_newsletter_410.htm

The obstacles to solving the housing shortage

We’re all well aware that California has been facing a shortage of affordable housing. Affordable housing is also an important step in recovering from the current recession. So, why hasn’t it happened yet? There are a couple of reasons.

It’s true that not enough homes are being built, but it’s more complicated than that. Not enough affordable housing is being built — because it’s actually more expensive to build than high-tier homes. Whenever housing is developed, it’s subject to a development fee, the rules for which are set at the city level, so they’re hard to standardize. The development fee can range from 6-18%, reaching upwards of $150,000 in some cities. The big issue is that this fee is charged per unit, which means that affordable housing developments, which invariably consist of multiple, smaller units, are subject to multiple development fees. This makes it difficult for developers to turn a profit from affordable housing projects.

The other reason is also the same reason it’s so important to our recovery — the job loss from COVID-19 and the recession itself. These factors have reduced purchasing power, increased homelessness, and increased the demand for lower-tier housing. Construction companies can’t keep with the ever-increasing demand for their most expensive, lowest return-on-investment projects.

Photo by Jeriden Villegas on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/homebuilding-is-key-to-the-next-recovery/72698/

Automation is coming to restaurants

As a result of COVID-19, restaurants are looking for ways to reduce the interaction between workers and customers. One solution? Robots. Robot chefs have been around for a while, but weren’t always successful. They’re now gaining more traction as restaurants see them as becoming a necessity.

New plans include a burger-flipping robot named Flippy at White Castle and a smoothie-making robot called Blendid, which is expected to have more widespread availability. Chowbotics reports 60% increased demand for Sally, a salad-making robot, and Wilkinson Baking Co. said they have also been getting more inquiries about their BreadBot.

Some are skeptical, though. Max Elder of Food Futures Lab warns that automation can’t solve all the problems within the food industry, and that offering it as a solution may take attention away from issues that were already in existence before the pandemic began. Elder also says the human factor is important — “Food is so personal, and it needs to involve humans,” according to him. Automated food companies insist they aren’t trying to replace human workers, only streamline the process so that workers can be more efficient, but nevertheless automation does reduce the demand for labor.

Photo by David Levêque on Unsplash

More: https://apnews.com/8782f38c9bfb0955a5f1dfd952a9e866

Tuna Salad

This is more than a tuna salad. This is a meal in a tortilla, a salad on greens to linger over with wine, hors d’oeuvre on chips, or an ultra tasty wrap in a swirl of your favorite cheese!

Albacore as everyone likes it. My general sizing recommendations are: use one if it’s on the large end of the size spectrum, use two if it’s on the small end, etc.

12 to 15 ounces (approximately) of cooked, flaked tuna
2-3 stalks of celery, in a fine dice
1-2 carrots, shredded
1-2 pickled cucumbers (dill pickles are my favorite)
red pepper flakes (optional)
1 large dollop of Dijon mustard
3-4 large dollops of mayonnaise
1 teaspoon rubbed sage
1 teaspoon dried dill
salt and pepper to taste.

Process

Let’s start by saying that I really don’t measure anything. If it looks like enough, it’s enough. If it doesn’t, add more. By the same token, if there’s something in the refrigerator that looks like it belongs, put it in! This is one of those “family” recipes where the cook adds and subtracts “to taste.”

First step is to get out a large mixing bowl, a cutting board and your favorite knife.

Flake the tuna into the bowl. I generally use canned albacore tuna, solid, white, in water. Albacore is mild and suits most taste buds. Actually, any tuna will do. Fluffed up, it should be in the neighborhood of 1.5 to 2 cups of tuna.

Wash the celery and carrots. I never bother to peel, but feel free to do so, if you like. Cut both lengthwise, into long, thin slivers. Then turn sideways and cut into a fine dice, approximately ¼ inch square, or less. Add to the bowl. There is a tool, photo here, that will do a very creditable job of creating long, skinny slivers without using a knife. Personally, I love my chef’s knife! I even use it for things it wasn’t designed to do.

Moving on, rinse the pickled cucumber. Using the same process, cut it into a small dice, and add to the bowl. If you’re pressed for time, or prefer the taste, there are commercially available pickle relishes, or spreads, that can serve the same purpose. I think Trader Joe still carries one called “sweet pickle relish” that serves nicely and saves a lot of time.

Sprinkle the sage, dill, salt and pepper over the top. At first, it’ll look like too much, but once mixed, it’ll be fine.

Now, add a dollop (I use a tablespoon, heaped to the point of dripping off) of mustard and most of the mayonnaise. Mix thoroughly. The mixture should hold together nicely, without being crumbly, or drippy. If I plan to use it on bread, I like it a bit more moist. If it’s added to lettuce, more dry. Add more mayonnaise as required to reach a suitable consistency.

For a tasty tuna sandwich, try preparing it open face, covered with a thick layer of tuna salad. Top with a generous amount of shredded or sliced cheddar, and toast until cheese is melted. If your taste buds lean to the spicy side, try a liberal sprinkle of red chile flakes before the toaster.

Be expressive with this dish! Use it as an appetizer, with a dollop of tuna on a tortilla chip and a dusting of chopped cilantro. Or top a plate of mixed greens with three good sized scoops of tuna salad and add the fruit of your choice.

Though tradition calls for an earthy white wine, I’ve often paired a spicy tuna mix with a strong red and had a wonderful repast. Enjoy your meal!

Many lockdown layoffs may be more permanent than temporary

Of course, no one who was laid off during the lockdowns was happy to lose their job. But at least initially, the expectation for most was that they would be returning to their job once the lockdown was over. In most cases, that hasn’t happened, both because COVID-19 has not yet been contained and because many of those positions simply don’t exist anymore.

The economic recession has been difficult on small businesses with tight budgets that are not getting as many customers, but still have the same costs without laying off workers and often even closing down facilities entirely. This means that the same businesses won’t have the extra income to rehire the workers they laid off. Businesses that are transitioning online rather than closing down may be hiring people again once a vaccine is widely available, but probably not the same people — they’re going to need a different skillset. People nearing retirement may be forced to retire early, as most businesses won’t want to hire someone who will only be working there a few years before retiring. All in all, a currently estimated 50% of jobs lost during COVID-19 will not be recovered, despite the estimate being 17% in April.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

More: https://apnews.com/89992979ca3c3ba72eb2cd31a9ca0e5d

55+ Options in South Bay

This is not intended to be an exhaustive list of 55+ housing choices, but a reference point for the more commonly known, age-restricted accommodations available in the Los Angeles South Bay. We welcome your input, but cannot guarantee inclusion.

Condominiums

Breakwater Village, 2750 Artesia Blvd, Redondo Beach, CA 90278
Courtyard Villas Estates, 3970 Sepulveda Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Gables, 3550 Torrance Blvd, Torrance, CA 90503
Meridian, 2742 Cabrillo Ave, Torrance, CA 90501
Montecito, 2001 Artesia Blvd, Redondo Beach, CA 90278
New Horizons, 22603-23047 Maple Ave and 22601-23071 Nadine Circle, Torrance, CA 90505
Pacific Village, 3120 Pacific Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Parkview Court, 2367 Jefferson St, Torrance, CA 90501
Rolling Hills Villas, 901 Deep Valley Dr, Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274
Sol y Mar, 5601 Crestridge Road, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275
Sunset Gardens, 24410 Crenshaw Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Tradewinds, 2605 Sepulveda Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505
Village Court, 21345 Hawthorne Blvd, Torrance, CA 90503

Independent/Assisted Living/Memory Care Facilities

Belmont Village, 5701 Crestridge Road, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275; 310-377-9977
Brookdale Senior Living, 5481 W Torrance Blvd, Torrance, CA 90503; 310-543-1174
Canterbury, 5801 West Crestridge Road, Rancho Palos Verdes, CA 90275; (877) 727-3213
Clearwater at South Bay, 3210 Sepulveda Blvd,Torrance, CA 90505; 424-250-8492; (previously Wellbrook)
Kensington, 320 Knob Hill Ave, Redondo Beach, 90277; (424) 210-8041
Manhattan Village Senior Villas, 1300 Parkview Ave, Manhattan Beach, CA 90266; (310) 546-4062
Silverado Senior Living, 514 N. Prospect Avenue, Redondo Beach, CA 90277; (310) 896-3100
Sunrise of Hermosa Beach, 1837 Pacific Coast Hwy Hermosa Beach CA 90254; 310-937-0959
Sunrise of Palos Verdes, 25535 Hawthorne Blvd, Torrance, CA 90505; 408-215-9608


Independent Living Only

Casa De Los Amigos, 123 S Catalina Ave, Redondo Beach, CA 90277; 310 376 3457
Heritage Pointe Senior Apartments, 1801 Aviation Way, Redondo Beach, CA 90278; (844) 220-4169
Seasons at Redondo Beach, 109 S Francisca Ave, Redondo Beach, CA 90277; (310) 374-6664

Mobile Home Parks

Skyline, 2550 Pacific Coast Hwy, Torrance
South Bay Estates, 18801 Hawthorne Blvd, Torrance
South Shores, 2275 25th St, San Pedro

Advantages and Disadvantages of Co-living

Like any living situation, co-living has its pros and cons. An article from the July/August 2020 edition of NAR’s senior newsletter can help you understand what they are. NAR outlines the advantages and potential disadvantages as well as how to mitigate them.

First, the advantages. Sharing responsibilities in the home is sure to decrease the burden on everyone. It’s especially useful if residents have distinct strengths and weaknesses and can complement each other. Residents in a co-living situation also divide costs, whether it’s mortgages as a homeowner or rent as a renter. Another big plus is the social factor. Humans are inherently social, and our physical and mental well-being depends on a sense of community.

Conflict is bound to arise between any people living together. This is especially true when there are power dynamics or physical limitations at play. Homeowners and renters may battle for a sense of control. Differences in health and mobility may place an unexpected burden on some residents. Luckily, many conflicts can be avoided with written agreements and trial periods. Be sure to interview prospective residents and discuss with them matters of finance, cleaning, visitors and pets, scheduling, and private vs common areas and household items. Background checks and credit checks may also be advised.

Photo by Thanos Pal on Unsplash

Recent South Redondo Sales

We monitor local South Bay real estate activity daily. The data is charted to show the direction of the market in terms of tendency to favor Sellers versus Buyers. Ideal market conditions are in the the center band where both have roughly equal market strength. As you can see, South Bay activity was right down the middle for July. The daily market trend has been more or less level since the beginning of the year, with only a slight upward movement each month.

Cumulatively, since the beginning of the year, the market has shifted from almost being a Buyers’ Market to being almost dead center on the chart. What that means in terms of value can be seen by looking at the most recent three months sales. The list below represents only houses, and only those sold in two neighborhoods. If you’re interested in real time information about homes like yours, or near yours, call and ask about our Neighborhood Notice service.

Image of list of South Redondo Sales from May through June of 2020.
These sales are for a select period and a select area. If you have interest in similar data for your neighborhood, we can provide you with our instant Neighborhood Notice. Call us for details.

How To Safely List Your Home During COVID-19

If you’re worried about listing your home during the pandemic, or if you want to take advantage of the increased inventory and buy a new home, there is a protocol for doing so safely, even in heavily impacted areas of California.

You should discuss with your agent the things that can be done to curb the spread of COVID-19. Some things you can do while others your agent will be better able to do. You can leave interior doors open prior to a showing to ensure visitors don’t need to open doors. Also, you can open windows before and after showings to let in fresh air.

In addition to opening windows for a showing, use disinfecting wipes or spray to clean surfaces that you expect may have been touched frequently, such as countertops, cabinets, light switches, and door knobs.

You and your visitors should wash hands or use hand sanitizer, wear masks or other protective face covering, and practice social distancing. Any disposable protective gear should be discarded when leaving.

The listing agent can discuss the precautions with the buyer and/or buyers’ agent. They can discuss taking care to avoid touching surfaces as much as possible and other safety measures, as well as check to make sure everyone is symptom-free.

The California Association of Realtors (CAR) provides a poster guiding the actions of visitors to minimize risk, which should be posted near the entry. CAR also provides a form called the Coronavirus Property Entry Advisory and Declaration (PEAD) which requires all involved to certify that they are aware of the safety requirements. That form should be signed by the agents, seller, and any visitors.

Be sure to call or email us for more information about safely showing property during the pandemic or regarding other aspects of buying and selling in difficult times. We each have over 25 years of experience in good times and in bad.

Photo by Clay Banks on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/farm-health-precautions-when-listing-your-home/72565/

California gets serious on housing shortage

It’s no secret that California has exorbitantly high home and rental prices as well as increasing homelessness. What may be less obvious is that the issue lies in housing construction. There simply aren’t enough affordable units being built.

That’s why California’s Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD) has established ambitious housing goals for the next decade. In order to be eligible for DHCD funding, a county such as Alameda County would need to plan to build 441,000 more housing units between 2022 and 2030. If that sounds unachievable already, take note that Alameda County is still behind by 188,000 units on its 2022 goal. As far as affordability, Alameda County has similar goals as other large metros for income distribution: about 45% to above-moderate income households, about 15% to moderate- and low-income respectively, and about 25% to very-low-income households. Local jurisdictions are also going to need to adjust their zoning laws to accommodate the new goals.

Photo by Denys Nevozhai on Unsplash

More: https://journal.firsttuesday.us/california-sets-lofty-housing-goals-for-the-decade-ahead/72328/

Co-Living vs Co-Housing: What’s the difference?

Co-living and co-housing are two types of housing arrangements that may be confused. Both are types of “intentional communities” — that is, communities in which the residents share some or all of the space. There are important distinctions in how that space is shared, though, outlined in July/August 2020 edition of NAR’s SRES newsletter.

In a co-living arrangement, all residents share a single dwelling, and the residents are not relatives. Each resident will normally have a private bedroom and possibly a private bathroom. The rest of the rooms are communal, including the kitchen, dining room, living room, and laundry area. This will be familiar to college students living in dorms, but it’s also a potentially beneficial housing arrangement of seniors who may not be able to afford their own housing space or may need assistance.

Co-housing communities, on the other hand, are more private, and likely more expensive. Each party in a co-housing situation may or may not be a single individual; they could be couples or families as well. In any case, the living unit is not shared with other parties, and no room inside the dwelling is communal. Instead, the communal space all exists outside the dwelling, in the form of activity rooms, pools, meeting rooms, or similar such areas.

Photo by Nastuh Abootalebi on Unsplash